Introduction

The Market Access Rogers International Commodity Index UCITS ETF (RICI) is one of Europe’s longest-established and broadest commodity ETFs. It was launched in 2006 and is listed in Frankfurt, Zurich and on the London Stock Exchange.

The ETF tracks the Rogers International Commodity Index® (RICIGLTR), a US dollar-denominated total return index of commodities consumed in the global economy, ranging from agricultural to energy to metal products. The Index provides exposure to 38 different exchange-traded commodities, through futures contracts quoted in four currencies, listed on 10 exchanges in four countries.

RICIGLTR is calculated on a total return basis, meaning that it includes an assumed interest rate return based on the USD 3-month T-bill rate.

Reasons to consider the RICI and broad commodity exposure

  • RICI has the broadest range of constituents among major commodity benchmarks
  • A broad index provides a potential hedge against rising inflation risks
  • Themes: base metals are key to the clean energy transition
  • Themes: climate change impacts agriculture and energy demand
  • Oil and gold provide a potential hedge against geopolitical risks

Performance

Source: Market Access, Bloomberg. Past performance should not be used as an indicator of future performance.

Discrete annual performance to 29 December 2023 (in GBP)

Dec 18 - Dec 19Dec 19 - Dec 20Dec 20 - Dec 21Dec 21 - Dec 22Dec 22 - Dec 23
Jim Rogers International Commodity Index (GBP)7.63%-10.45%42.53%34.08%-9.57%
Spot Gold (GBP)13.84%21.38%-2.67%11.64%7.35%
FTSE 100 Index12.10%-14.34%14.30%0.91%3.78%
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS TR Index (GBP)23.80%-7.95%42.73%-15.97%5.69%
5 Yr Gilt Index0.65%0.09%0.39%2.27%4.09%

Source: Market Access, Bloomberg. Past performance should not be used as an indicator of future performance.

Five year returns to 29 December 2023 (in GBP)

5 YearRICIGLTR (GBP) GBP Gold Spot (XAU) FTSE 100 Index
Performance66.57%61.19%14.94%
Annualised performance10.74%10.02%2.82%
Annualised Volatility19.40%14.46%17.58%
Max Drawdown38.97%22.43%35.03%
Sharpe Ratio0.470.590.07

Source: Market Access, Bloomberg. Past performance should not be used as an indicator of future performance.

Commodities as an inflation hedge

Commodities, as key inputs in manufacturing and consumer staples, can be leading indicators of emerging inflation and exposure to them can serve to potentially hedge inflation risks.

Source: Market Access, Bloomberg. Past performance should not be used as an indicator of future performance.

COMMODITY INDEX CONSTITUENTS RICI vs BLOOMBERG, UBS CMCI, S&P GSCI

RICI BCOM UBS CMCI S&P GSCI

Source: Target 2023 weights. Market Access, index issuer websites: RICI, Bloomberg Commodity Index, UBS CMCI, S&P GSCI. RICI - Rogers International Commodity Index (RICIGLTR), BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity index (BCOMTR), UBS CMCI Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR), S&P GSCI - S&P GSCI Index (SPGCGPTR).

RICI index background

James B. Rogers, Jr. designed the index in the late 1990s. His focus was to create an index that reflected global consumption of commodities.

This global focus differentiates the RICI from other commodity indices, meaning that it includes commodities like rice, rubber, white sugar and lumber.

There are 11 commodities in the RICI that are not included in the other three comparison benchmarks. They represent 9.05% of the index target weights.

Base metals – essential to the transition to clean energy

In the drive towards a net zero carbon economy, there will be a potentially significant uplift in demand for commodities that are critical in enabling the transition to clean energy. This includes nickel, which is one of the key materials used in batteries for electric vehicles.

Stated Policies Scenario, an indication of where the global energy system is heading based on a sector-by-sector analysis of today’s policies and policy announcements.

Sustainable Development Scenario, indicating what would be required in a trajectory consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals.

Source: International Energy Agency, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, NTree International

Commodity in focus – Oil

Source: Data as of 29 December 2023. Market Access, Bloomberg.

Outlook for the oil market

US Energy Information Administration (EIA)[1] expects the oil market to be finely balanced over the course of 2024. Production is expected to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 102.34 mb/d, while global consumption is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d to 102.46 mb/d, largely driven by growth in demand in China and India.

Consistent with its approach in 2023, OPEC+ is expected to continue to show production restraint, which includes additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 mb/d to production in the first quarter[2], with a view to maintaining prices above a floor around the $80 level. The EIA sees OPEC+ production averaging 36.4 mb/d in 2024. In the US, oil production is forecast to rise to 13.2 mb/d in 2024 from 12.9 mb/d in 2023.

The EIA is expecting inventory drawdowns in the first quarter that will put some upward pressure on Brent crude oil prices, however this pressure is expected to reduce over the course of the year on expectations of a relatively balanced market. Its average price forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) during 2024 are $82 and $78 respectively.

Many factors could lead to prices and average prices diverging widely from these levels, including: 1.) the global macro picture, i.e. stronger or weaker than forecast growth in global GDP; 2.) non-OECD demand, in particular the rate of growth in demand in China and India; 3.) OPEC+ appetite to maintain the Q1 2024 additional voluntary cuts for longer if required to maintain a balanced market; 4.) potential for supply disruptions as a result of geopolitical tensions or country-specific issues.

What is OPEC+?

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was set up in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to set up oil production targets and currently has 12 members following the departure of Angola in January 2024. In 2016, OPEC signed an agreement with 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan, with a view to setting caps on oil production in order to support oil prices which at that time were under downward pressure, in large part because of the growth in shale oil production in the US. This broader grouping is identified as OPEC+. Brazil joined OPEC+ in January 2024, but it is not participating in any production cuts3.

How to invest

Please contact your wealth management adviser or stockbroker. The ETF is also available through leading online investment platforms. The ETF is ISA and SIPP eligible.

Please contact us if there any issues with trading the ETF through a platform and we will gladly try to assist.

To find out more, please click here for fund information and literature.

Please read the prospectus, including the risk factors, and KIID before making an investment in the ETF.

Click here to find out more about Market Access and China Post Global.

key features

Legal form UCITS ETF
ISIN LU0249326488
TER / OCF 0.60%
Domicile Luxembourg
Management Company FundRock Management Company S.A.
Investment Manager China Post Global (UK) Limited
Custodian and Administrator RBC Investor Services Bank S.A.
Replication Synthetic (swap with Barclays Bank Plc)
ISA / SIPP eligible Yes
UK Reporting Fund Status Yes